Community Plan 2009-2019

Looking to the future and assuming nothing will change is something we cannot do. If we look back over the last 10 years we can see how our district has changed dramatically. The Coastal Walkway, our events that have put us on the national stage, all these things have changed the way our towns and our city is perceived nationally and internationally. We will never be able to predict with absolute certainty what our district will be like in 2019, but we know from statistics and indicators used nationally that there are challenges and issues we will all face as a result of changes in the economy, our working environment and our national and international trading position. These indicators, together with a host of other unpredictable events, will shape the environment within which this plan will operate during 2009-2019.

Summary of major non financial planning assumptions (more detail follows in this section)

Issue	Assumption	Impact on community	Impact on the Council	Certainty	Comment
Skills	Current population projections, while positive, suggest that Taranaki cannot meet its full economic potential from its natural population.	High	High	High	The Council requires skilled personnel to deliver its services. Skill shortages will be more pronounced when there is a tight labour market and strong economic growth.
Political change	The National-led government has indicated a number of reforms to current legislation that it intends to review.	Medium	High	Medium	The Resource Management Act is changing, and further changes to the Building Act and the Local Government Act may also occur. Any impact will be properly analysed and amendments to this plan made at the appropriate time.
Gender mix	The gender mix of the district's population will remain at approximately 51% females and 49% males.	Low	Low	High	There are no significant implications foreseen.
Ethnic make-up	The ethnic mix will continue to be predominately European and Māori with a continued increase in the Asian population.	Low	Low	High	Services supporting the social and other needs of the various ethnicities in the district are considered sufficient for the life of the plan.
Infrastructural capacity	There is sufficient infrastructural capacity to cater for forecast population and economic growth.	Low	Low	High	As the population grows additional demand is placed on the Council infrastructure. This will be monitored by the Council over the life of this Community Plan.
Environmental sustainability	The quality of the district environment will continue to improve with the continued implementation of effective and sustainable management systems.	Low	Low	High	Improvements will arise in better sewage treatment, improved solid waste collection and disposal and wider recycling capture.
Summary	The district faces some uncertainties in the operating environment over the life of this plan.	Medium	Medium	Medium	The key factors that are considered likely to significantly alter the environment in which the Council operates are dependent on the state of the economy. Moderate growth in households and moderate growth in population are not seen as placing significant pressure on existing services.
Population	Continuation of modest growth of an average of 0.4% per year from 2009 to 2019.	Medium	Medium	Medium	This figure will be reviewed in 2012 against the effectiveness of actions aimed at taking advantage of additional employment potential resulting from increased oil and gas development.
Age profile	The population will continue to age with an increasing portion aged over 65 years.	Medium	Medium	High	The proportion of the district's population over 65 years is forecast to increase from 15% (2006) to 19% by 2020. This means that the number of people in the district who are over 65 will increase by 2,500 people.
Rate of new residential development	Growth of 300 new dwellings per annum or 1.2% per annum.	Medium	Medium	Medium	The rate of predicted new dwellings construction will meet the anticipated demands of forecast modest population growth.
Location of new dwellings	The principal demand for residential 'green fields' land supply will continue to occur around the periphery of the New Plymouth urban area and at Bell Block.	Medium	Medium	High	Urban growth around New Plymouth, and particularly at Bell Block, will cause increased demands for urban facilities and infrastructure.
Economy	Economic growth will slow down over the next two years but it is estimated there will be moderate economic growth from 2010/11 onwards. The estimate is at 0.3% to 4% over the 10 year life of the Community Plan.	Medium	Medium	Medium	The forecast is for slow economic growth in the regional economy for the first two years. Treasury forecast growth to be 0.3% in 2009 rising to 4% in 2013. This will be monitored closely by the Council. From 2011 onwards predicted growth will assist significantly in maintaining general community well being over the 10 years of the plan.
Climate change	Climate change will affect the district over the medium to long-term in line with predicted national changes.	Medium	Medium	Medium	The level of uncertainty around the likely effects of climate change is high, as is evidenced by the range of severity of effects predicted by various researchers. The Council will continue to develop its response by planning for future predicted changes and utilising effective risk management.

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The following section outlines our assumptions under the following headings - our people, our economy and our environment.

Our people

Population projections

The 2006 census recorded that 68,901 people usually live in New Plymouth District. Between the 2001 and 2006 Census, the district's population rose by 2,298 people, or 3.5 per cent (Statistics New Zealand, 2008).

(Source: New Plymouth District Council (NPDC) demographic analysis and forecasts as at January 2009)

The latest estimated population of the district is approximately 72,000. This is expected to grow over the life of the plan by 4.3 per cent. Because of the uncertainty around the effect of skill shortages, population projections are calculated in-house using Statistics New Zealand births, deaths and international migration data and methodologies. Domestic (within New Zealand) net migration also uses Statistics New Zealand data. Because New Plymouth District Council can update its population forecasts on a monthly basis, they vary from the more conservative Statistics New Zealand annual projection.

The size of the Taranaki economy and its labour force will depend in population growth and demographics. New Plymouth District population has grown significantly over this decade, but this has only just compensated for the decline in population of Stratford and South Taranaki districts. New Plymouth District population has grown faster than the official Statistics New Zealand predictions and it is assumed that this will continue at a modest rate unless significant effort is applied to actively bringing in new migrants into the district.

The Council maintains a watching brief on population growth and is aware of the local factors influencing population trends. As can be seen from the chart below the Council's own projections indicate a modest level of growth out to 2036.

The recent Business and Economic Research Limited (BERL) report (November 2007) for Venture Taranaki paints a very optimistic picture for job growth in Taranaki. Projections around the BERL factor have been derived, one for 100 percent of the new jobs predicted (BERL 100) and one for half of the new jobs forecast (BERL 50) being realised. The BERL report also forecasts that the Taranaki economy will also outperform the national economy in the years ahead. Recent global economic impacts will alter these forecasts and it is not assumed that this level of growth will take place in the short to medium term of this plan.

Notwithstanding the very positive BERL outlook, the basic infrastructural capacities of the district (i.e. water and sewerage treatment, stormwater, waste management, urban land supply and open space) are considered adequate to accommodate the demands of even the BERL 100 scenario in the short to medium term.

The Council will continue to closely monitor key population and economic indicators over the life of the plan. This will provide a basis on which to identify any trends that have implications for an expansion of significant Council activities and/or levels of service.

Gender mix

The gender mix of the district's population will remain at approximately 51 per cent females and 49 per cent males.

We have slightly more females than males. This is a common result of women living longer than men.Return to top

Ethnic make-up

Just over 77 per cent of our community identifies themselves as European. The next largest group is Māori, with people of Pacific Island and Asian origins making up a relatively small proportion compared with other parts of New Zealand. Birth rates, while falling, are one third higher for Māori women than for European women. Depending on the size and ethnic make-up of migration into New Plymouth District, the Māori proportion of the district's population should increase over the long term.

The ethnic make-up also varies considerably by location in the district, from three per cent Māori in Egmont Village to 34 per cent Māori in Waitara West. These differences also reflect the economic well-being of the area.

(Source: Statistics New Zealand 'quick stats about a placeâ' - 2006 Census)

Note. NPDC statistics are based on Census data and updated real data gathered from the Council.

Age profile

The size of the district's population is expected to be relatively static. The only other foreseeable and significant demographic change is the aging of the population. The proportion of our population over 65 years of age is expected to increase from 16 per cent to 19 per cent of the total population over the life of the plan. This means that an additional 2,500 people will be in this age group in 10 years time (NPDC, 2009). This follows a long term trend of an ageing population which is typical of New Zealand as a population predominantly made of Europeans. This will not be dramatic within the plan period (2009-2019), but has long term implications for the services provided by the Council and other organisations in the community.

(Source: NPDC demographic analysis and forecasts as at January 2009)Return to top

Population fluctuations

The resident population fluctuates during the year with more tourism during the holiday period. Events promotion has been successful and brings domestic tourism to the district. This brings with it increased demands on infrastructure (roads, sewerage, water, solid waste, parks and reserves) and services.

Number of households

The number of households in the district is expected to rise, even if population falls slightly. This is because the number of people living in the average household is dropping, leading to more households for any given total population. This is called the household formation rate. This figure is important to the Council, because it will drive expenditures for water and sewerage connections, refuse collection pick-ups, building and resource consents and road frontage expenditures.

There are also much wider, and perhaps more important, questions arising when the age profile and household formation rates are combined and these are:

• Will we become a community where as we get older we find ourselves living in smaller households, or alone?
• Does this mean we will become increasingly socially isolated?
• What different things will the Council and other agencies do to ensure the social and physical health of our people?

The household formation rates over the next 27 years are shown below (NPDC demographic analysis and forecasts as at January 2009).

New Plymouth District	Estimated/projected households (each year at 30 June)
	1991	1996	2001	2006	2011	2016	2021	2026	2031	2036
Estimated total population	69,600	69,700	68,400	71,100	73,400	75,000	76,400	77,500	78,400	79,200
Estimated occupied private dwellings	23,892	25,200	25,629	26,818	28,318	29,818	31,107	32,104	32,876	33,472
Dwelling intensity (people/dwelling)	2.91	2.77	2.67	2.65	2.59	2.52	2.46	2.41	2.38	2.37

Where we live

While we are currently experiencing a slowdown in new development, and this will be exacerbated in the short-medium term by the economic recession, it can be expected that there will be new growth in the future, as the national economy begins to gather momentum again. Planning for the long-term development of New Plymouth District is part of what this plan is all about. The Council, in conjunction with the community, will be looking to define how each community should grow over time.

The Council has processed record numbers of building consents since 2001. Rapid increases in coastal property prices over the last five years have led many to believe that the coast is under particular development pressure. The Council has been monitoring new building consents and has found that people are tending to build predominantly around the periphery of urban New Plymouth, and within and around the existing towns.

Whilst it is envisaged that building consents will slow down as the economy slows. It is expected that they will rise again as the economy improves during the 10-year life of this community plan.

(Source: NPDC, 2007)

What does this mean for our people

There are few changes expected in the number of people in the district, their ethnic make-up, their age profile or where they live.

This relative stability allows the Council and partner organizations to focus on the quality of the district’s living environment, rather than coping with the growth or decline faced by some other local authorities. Major impacts could be experienced if there is a slowdown in the economic performance of the region and unemployment may increase as a result. This will be monitored closely by the Council during the life of this plan.Return to top

Our economy

Growth

Taranaki topped year-on year growth in New Zealand, recording a growth rate of 2.6 per cent. Since 2004 Taranaki has regularly been above the national growth rate. This has largely been due to the key industries that drive the Taranaki economy, that is the oil and gas and agriculture sectors, and their associated secondary industries such as food processing and engineering. The latest data shows that whilst the growth rate is now declining during challenging economic times, the region is still performing above the national average for year on year growth.

New Zealand is forecast to experience a period of weak economic growth over the next couple of years as the economy is affected by low global growth and unwinds past imbalances. Real production GDP is forecast to grow by 0.3 per cent in the March 2009 year. Growth is expected to remain weak over the 2010 March year at 0.8 per cent. Real GDP growth is expected to lift to around 3 per cent in 2011 and just below 4 per cent in 2012 and 2013, as growth in our trading partners recovers and monetary and fiscal policy responses help confidence to recover. As this occurs export and investment growth are expected to increase (New Zealand Treasury, 2009).

The impact of an economic slowdown on jobs, wages and its subsequent impact on affordability will be closely monitored by the Council.

Regional economic growth year-on-year

(Source: National Bank Regional Trend Report March-September 2008)

Economic trends forecast (NZ Treasury)

(Source: New Zealand Treasury 2009)Return to top

Government initatives

The National-led government has indicated a number of reforms to current legislation that it intends to review. The Resource Management Act is changing, and further changes to the Building Act and the Local Government Act may also occur. This plan does not try and anticipate what changes will occur and any impact will be properly analysed and amendments to this plan made at the appropriate time.

Skill shortages

The community made it clear in 2003, when the Council prepared its community outcomes, that businesses and organisations were having difficulty in hiring people with the right skills. The community also made it clear that the economy was its foremost concern. Since that time research has revealed that skill shortages are a major constraint on business in times of economic growth. Current population projections, while positive, suggest that Taranaki cannot meet its full economic potential from its natural population as time progresses (BERL, 2007).

An ageing labour force and an increasing global mobile labour force makes it difficult to maintain a highly skilled base.

The implications for the Council sit with its wide range of activities that all directly affect the quality of the local living environment and its attractiveness to the globalised labour market. The Council also has a direct role in purchasing economic development service from Venture Taranaki which is already active in marketing the region.

Skill shortages are expected to add to the natural population increase of the district by seeing an in-flow of workers into the region. This is difficult to predict however and depends on the actions of industry, Venture Taranaki, government agencies and retaining the attractiveness of the region as a lifestyle choice.

Our environment

The quality of the district environment will continue to improve with the continued implementation of effective and sustainable management systems. Some trends, e.g. increased nutrients and bacteria in fresh water courses due to farm run-off, are at risk of increasing if regulation is not rigorously enforced. Risks from oil and gas development and increased production need to be mitigated

New Plymouth District is renowned for its scenery and outdoor activities, and we are committed to ensuring the natural resources remain available for generations to come.

As part of the Communities for Climate Protection- New Zealand programme (CCP-NZ) we aim to reduce the amount of green house gases produced in the district. The collection, monitoring and analysis of key data in relation to the economic, social, cultural and environmental wellbeing of the district will assist us to manage the district in a sustainable manner.

Sustainability

Increased environmental awareness in the community will lead to greater expectations on the Council to place greater emphasis on environmental sustainability and to incorporate sustainability principles into all its services and facilities. Indications are that solid waste management and waste recycling will be at the forefront of community expectations.

The recently announced central government emissions trading scheme has implications for the Council, specifically in relation to forestry and landfill operations.Forestry management operations are being reviewed and the viability of capturing landfill gas at Colson Rd for use as an energy source is being investigated.

Climate change

Over the last 100 years global temperatures have risen by 0.7 degrees Celsius, with most of that rise in the last three decades. Considerable international research concludes that this 'warming' is accelerating and is already having quite significant effects on the global environment (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007). The Council has commissioned the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Sciences (NIWA) to provide it with regular up-dates on the phenomenon and its likely implications for the district and region.

Currently, over the life of the 2009-2019 Community Plan the main effects are forecast to be more frequent and severe storm events, with accompanying flooding, erosion and property damage risks, along with threats to the safety of people exposed to them. Sea level rise also needs to be monitored and forecast in order to predict coastal hazards and their implications for development (NIWA, 2008).

The level of uncertainty around the likely effects of climate change is high, as is evidenced by the range of severity of effects predicted by various researchers.Return to top

Facing the challenges

New Plymouth District faces a number of challenges in the life of this proposed 2009-2019 Community Plan. We have attempted to identify these challenges in the previous section. This section outlines how the Council, working with the community and its partners, will endeavour to meet these challenges and address them during the next few years.

Our economy

The Taranaki economy (of which New Plymouth District is the largest part) has been very buoyant since 2001. Growth for the region has been 2.6 per cent year-on-year, this topped New Zealand performance in June 2008. Recent quarterly performance September 2008 recorded a drop in growth of 1.9 per cent, this is as a result of the global economic downturn (National Bank, 2008).

Managing the slow down in growth will have a knock on affect in terms of our dairy industry and exports, but the region has had a resilient track record and whilst it is envisaged that the next two years will be difficult, the region is well placed to take advantage of the subsequent upturn in the economy in the latter years of this plan. Working with our partners in other government agencies we will attempt to support our businesses and our community through this time of change.

It is important to recognise the future opportunities for growth will materialise in the life of this plan and continue to build our skill base to meet demand for the future. New Plymouth District, therefore, needs to continue to position itself as a location of choice for skilled labour and investment to be ready to meet the opportunities presented by a future upturn in the economy.

Our population

The population is expected to be stable with a modest increase of 0.4 per cent per year over the period of the plan. The extent of inward migration will be dependent on the industry sectors (led by oil and gas and dairy) being able to attract skilled employees when there are periods of growth.

The impact of the global economic slow down may affect the predicted growth of these sectors in the early part of the plan. However, when the economic climate improves, and growth is stimulated, the district will inevitably need to increase its workforce. At this point, growth will be highly dependent on the district continuing to be perceived as offering a quality of life that compares well nationally and internationally. This is equally important when the district is trying to improve its graduate retention.

If the population growth does not occur to coincide with economic growth then the resident population will be insufficient to meet the future increases in employment in the latter period of the plan. This could result in loss of local, regional and national economic development opportunities in the future.

There is also the social impact of a declining population in specific areas of the district. This fragmentation of social cohesion can have an adverse effect on community well-being.

The Council will continue to closely monitor key population and economic indicators over the life of the 2009-2019 Community Plan. There is sufficient infrastructural capacity to meet anticipated demand in the short to medium term.Return to top

Age profile

New Plymouth District has a slightly older age profile than the rest of New Zealand, but this is in part due to lower than average numbers of 18 to 24 year olds, who presumably are training or in employment in other centres.

With the number of people in the district who are over 65 increasing by 2,500 (NPDC, 2009), it is expected there will be greater demands on social and health services and accommodation needs for the elderly. There may also be an increased demand for public transportation and service and facility modifications to meet the needs of the elderly. Social and health services responses will need to be factored into planning by the agencies responsible.

The private sector will be the primary responder to accommodation needs and the Regional Transport Authority (Taranaki Regional Council) will continue to implement and refine the regional public transport strategy.

Skill shortages

A recent business survey undertaken by Venture Taranaki in December 2008 found that businesses are finding it easier to get skilled staff. Nearly a third reported difficulties in attracting staff, down 38.6 per cent in June 2008. However, as the economic climate improves, and growth is stimulated, the district will inevitably need to increase its skilled labour force to meet the needs of industry. This coupled with the need to retain graduates in the district means there needs to still be a concerted effort to ensure the future workforce has the skills to meet the needs of the region's employers when the economic climate improves and the key sectors of industry move into a growth phase.

On a regional comparison Taranaki had the lowest rate for educational attainment of the population aged 25 to 64 (Future Taranaki, 2008). To continue to develop as a region we also need to ensure that current level of educational attainment in the region is improved.

Our environment

Increased environmental awareness in the community will lead to greater expectations on the Council to place greater emphasis on environmental sustainability and to incorporate sustainability principles into all its services and facilities. Indications are that solid waste management and waste recycling will be at the forefront of community expectations.

The district has recognised increased pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This will result in increased demand for urban roads and cycleways to accommodate greater numbers of cyclists, smaller lighter vehicles (electric/battery powered cars), pedestrians and an increased use of public transport.

This trend will place increased demands on the Council and New Zealand Transport Agency to increase levels of service in respect of the district cycling strategy and walkways whilst operating in an uncertain economic climate.

The quality and health of the natural environment is of paramount importance to our district. Some trends e.g. increased nutrients and bacteria in fresh water courses due to farm run-off are at risk of increasing if regulation is not rigorously enforced. Risks from oil and gas development and increased production also need to be mitigated in order to balance the equation of a sustainable environment and economic prosperity (Taranaki Regional Council, 2003).

The Council together with Taranaki Regional Council will continue to implement their respective planning instruments under the Resource Management Act in the integrated sustainable management of the environment.

The Council is actively planning responses to potential climate changes in all of its assets and activities. Areas such as stormwater, parks, roading and reserves management all factor the possible effects of climate change into their modelling programmes.

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